The clean energy sector faces growing uncertainty due to ongoing tariff discussions, which could impact the deployment of renewable technologies essential for global decarbonization and European energy independence. Geopolitical tensions and technological shifts are diverting attention from rapid energy transition efforts, leading to potential disruptions in the clean energy landscape.
Recent tariff scenarios analyzed reveal that the imposition of higher tariffs could affect the supply chains of five key clean energy technologies: solar, onshore wind, offshore wind, battery storage, and electric vehicles (EVs). Projections indicate that by 2035, the adoption of renewable energy in the United States could stagnate under high-tariff conditions, while growth in Europe may also slow down, particularly for solar and wind technologies.
Three tariff scenarios were evaluated: 1. **Productivity Acceleration**: Assumes a status quo with tariffs of 50% on solar panels, 25% on batteries, and 100% on EVs entering the United States, along with up to 35% on EVs entering the European Union from China. 2. **No Real Disruption**: Considers a 20% tariff on all goods from China, 25% on goods from Mexico and Canada, and an average tariff of 52% on solar modules from Southeast Asia. 3. **Global Tensions Escalate**: Envisions 60% tariffs on goods entering the United States from China and 20% on goods from other partners, with the European Union applying an average tariff of 47.7% on solar panels and batteries from China and 140% on wind turbine imports.
As of June 2025, both China and the United States have paused tariffs exceeding 100%, while the European Union maintains tariffs of up to 35% on Chinese EVs. The international EV market shows that imports constitute about 30% of the EU’s market, primarily from China, while the United States sources 35% of its EVs from Mexico, Canada, and the EU.
Under the productivity acceleration scenario, the U.S. could achieve a 69% clean energy mix by 2035, slightly reduced under tariff scenarios. In contrast, high tariffs could hinder progress, delaying the transition to renewable energy beyond the target year. The EU’s clean energy market may experience a 3% increase in costs by 2050 due to tariffs, while the U.S. could see a 2% rise, although these figures carry significant uncertainty.
With tariff conditions evolving rapidly, stakeholders in the clean energy sector must evaluate their supply chains to identify vulnerabilities and strengths. Energy producers and manufacturers should adapt their strategies based on the specific technologies they utilize and the regions they operate in. For instance, while wind energy costs may remain relatively stable, solar energy could face more substantial cost increases due to tariffs.
Despite the challenges posed by tariffs, the deployment of clean technologies is expected to continue, albeit at a slower pace and higher costs. Companies must focus on investing in areas less sensitive to tariffs and consider diversifying their supply chains to mitigate risks associated with tariff volatility. As the landscape evolves, the future of supportive legislation, such as the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, will also play a pivotal role in shaping the clean energy sector.
Overall, the clean energy landscape may become more complex as tariffs linger. The sector’s ability to adapt to these changes will determine how swiftly and economically it can transition to a more sustainable energy future.